Resource scarcity and conflict in developing countries. Scholars predict that climate change will degrade the environment considerably during this century, ceteris paribus ipcc, 2007a, ipcc, 2007b. American association for the advancement of science, 1996. In other words, even if environmental changes exacerbate resource scarcity, violent conflict is not a foregone conclusion. Percival, environmental scarcity and violent conflict.
Resource scarcity during the pre violent conflict stage. Another important contribution of the book is homerdixons focus on the role of knowledge and ideas, or lack thereof, in. In the first case, resource scarcity can exacerbate a conflict thus increasing the likelihood that it might become violent. Moreover, even if violent conflict occurs, resource scarcity is unlikely to be the main cause although it may be present in the respective case. Although many wars have been fought over natural resources, the author resists the simple notion that environmental pressures inexorably lead to violent conflict. To help students understand this role, this study guide will briefly describe those natural resources that are typically involved in violent conflicts, the role of natural resources as causes of conflict or escalation of conflict, and their role in managing. Thomas homerdixon and valerie percival, environmental scarcity and violent conflict. Received 8 july 2009 received in revised form 18 august 2009 accepted 1 september 2009. Thomas f homerdixon from the john holmes library collection. This chapter examines the conditions under which environmental problems in ldcs, and africa in particular, may escalate into armed conflict. The earths human population is expected to pass eight billion by the year 2025, while rapid growth in the global economy will spur ever increasing demands for natural resources. Strategies for studying causation in complex ecological and political systems. The relationship between environmental scarcity and conflict is a complex one.
The uninterrupted supply of resources such as oil and certain strategic minerals has been traditionally identifiedas a national security. Introduction this casestudy on south africa was pro duced for the project on environment, population, and security at the university of toronto. Environmental scarcity, mass violence, and the limits to ingenuity. Environmental changes and violent conflict iopscience. In lieu of an abstract, here is a brief excerpt of the content. This book examines how the environmental degradation of renewable resources such as fresh water, productive soils, forests, and fisheries influences relations between and within poor societies. Homerdixon is careful to point out that the effects of environmental scarcity are indirect and act in. Conflict usually occurs primarily as a result of a clash of interests in the relationship between parties, groups or states, either because they pursuing opposing or incompatible goals. But how severe are the security risks and conflict potentials of climate change. New issues will arise during conflict which perpetuate the conflict.
The case of rwanda, occasional paper for the project on environment, population and security, june 1995. Water and violent conflict issues brief provided by oecd. Climate changeinduced migration and violent conflict. Scarcities can interact with numerous social, economic, and political factors, such as the legitimacy of the political regime and the character of the economic system. Homerdixon is careful to point out that the effects of environmental scarcity are indirect and act in combination with other social, political, and economic stresses. With this briefing book the climate and security advisory group csag, a voluntary, nonpartisan group of u. The way in which conflicts over natural resources become politicized within the broader conflict and political context is also a determining factor in whether the conflict becomes violent. Conflict due to renewable resource scarcity could be cyclical, implying recurring phases of conflict. It outlines lessons learned and recommendations for programmes seeking to prevent and mitigate waterrelated conflicts. Competition over increasingly scarce renewable resources. He also acknowledges that human ingenuity can reduce the likelihood of conflict, particularly in countries with efficient markets, capable states, and an educated populace. Building on the overview of the links between the environment, conflict and peace issues brief, it complements other environment related issues briefs on land, forests and.
By carefully tracing the causal processes in each case, we also sought to identify how environmental scarcity operates, if and when it is a cause of conflict. The author uses social science research methodology to isolate the independent variable of environmental scarcity in order to study the ways it may or may not contribute to violence. In brief, our research showed that environmental scarcities are already contributing to violent conflicts in many parts of the developing world. In this article environmental conflict research designates scholarly contributions that portray or discuss the natural environment as a cause of violent conflict. Environmental scarcity and conflict executive summary natural resources and con. Environmentally induced displacement and the 1951 refugee. Climate change, human security and violent conflict. C american association for the advancement of science and the university of. Environment, scarcity, and violence princeton university. Severe droughts, damaging floods and mass migration.
Climate change is becoming a focal point for security and conflict research and a challenge for the worlds governance structures. American association for the advancement of science. Environmental scarcitiesand violent conflict i thomas f. Pdf environment, scarcity and violence researchgate. Environment, scarcity, and violence foreign affairs. George rathjens, environmental scarcity and violent conflict, scientific american. Homerdixon moves the arguments about environmental scarcity and violent conflict forward a big step. Briefing book, the project on environment, population and security, aaas and university of toronto, 1996. Thomas homerdixons environment, scarcity and violence offers a scholarly analysis of the role environmental scarcity plays in spawning violent human conflicts. The world will consequently face growing scarcities of such vital renewable resources as cropland, fresh water, and forests. Environmental degradation and violent conflict in bougainville. Environment, scarcity and violence thomas homerdixon. The national referent dominates discussions of security, large scale violent conflict is the concern that receives the most attention from policymakers, and developing military capability to respond to possible violent conflicts consumes large amounts of public resources.
Environmental scarcity and the outbreak of conflict. We use the model to examine various policy scenarios concerning population control and technical innovations in. And he describes the kinds of violence that can result from these social effects, arguing that conflicts in chiapas, mexico and ongoing turmoil in many african and asian countries, for instance, are already partly a consequence of scarcity. Transboundary resource disputes and the case of west bank water, international security, vol. Resource scarcity can play a role in both types of conflict prevention situations which were discussed earlier. This site is like a library, use search box in the widget to get ebook that you want. Environmental degradation, poverty, and conflict reinforce each other and constitute a real development trap in most less developed countries ldcs and africa in particular. Confronting the concept of environmentally induced. Environmental scarcity and violent conflict download.
Environmental scarcity is never the sole cause of conflict, but it is often an aggravating or contributing factor. These social effects can then, under certain conditions. The author uses social science research methodology to isolate the independent variable of environmental scarcity in order to study the ways it may. Briefing book the project on environment, population and security. University of toronto project of environment, population and security, toronto, on. Future efforts at conflict prevention and resolution should take the role that environmental scarcity plays into account, and appropriate interventions to prevent demand, supply, and structurallyinduced scarcity should be pursued. Briefing book, washington, dc, american association for the advancement of science, 1996. University college, university of toronto, 1996 ocolc6476351. Thomas homerdixon argues in this sobering book that these environmental scarcities will. Although the term war is sometimes used as a synonym for conflict, it is more usual to restrict the meaning of war to violent conflict, involving armed forces.
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